The coyote moment
You know the one, you are off the cliff but holding still with legs whirling.
The liberal metropolitan elite of the country has reached the bargaining stage, OK its BREXIT but let us not hope its too bad.
The economic indicators are stable thus far. This has a lot to do with nothing happening. Are markets actually wise,? Nope. There is no more wisdom in crowds than in one individual. Groups of people believe lots of stupid things. (horoscopes for example). You can't vote the earth flat.
No economic analysis said we would collapse day of vote plus 1. The trouble starts when BREXIT begins. This might be a year from now, it might be two or three.
As Simon Wren-Lewis and Paul Krugman have pointed out, we will be worse in the long term. Their arguments are plausible and articulate. They have data too; I know who needs experts!
My own prediction is that BREXIT will be mishandled, most models of life underestimate the potential for sheer stupidy or malice on the part of decision makers. In theory, it could be handled sensibly, but then in theory children should not squabble over who gets which one of two essentially identical toys.
It looks to me that hard BREXIT is on the cards, that is a complete break and WTO rules at best. In which case, we will see a run on sterling and a major recession. Politics will make it all worse, not better.
Why hard BREXIT, because the anti-European fanatic fringe of magical thinkers on the Tory party (Rees-Mogg, Jenkin, Cash, Gove etc) will bring down the government over any issue before allowing free movement or something like it. Enough of the people's front of Judea will vote against apple pie if a Tory government proposed it and there was a chance to defeat them in a vote. What about the pro-EU liberal wing of the Tory and Labour party, look not to princes (ponces?) for salvation.
They believe in common sense, but above all, they believe in having a job tomorrow. Given the choice (and they always are), party loyalty and salved by the false hope for a better tomorrow will ensure the liberal majority will back down in the face of truly committed who would, in fact, lose everything. It was ever thus.
Anyway, what news of the Corporal, doing wonders in the US. He is not done with us, not by a long chalk.
