The wisdom of 52 %
I listened to Michael 'cut-price plotter' Gove, oh the 52 % of the great British public know more than the IMF etc etc. So that's it, so long as you get 52 % you are right. I agree that you have won the argument if you get > 50 % of the vote. However, it does NOT make you right. (In fact, the fallacy in his argument can be seen by his previous rhetorical mocking of the economists, only one is sufficient).
Let's try > 50 % vote to castrate male sex offenders, right ?
Would it matter if 50 % rejected evolution? Now if 50 % of qualified scientists who had studied it felt that way I'd listen, but I have no more interest in the majority analysis of facts than I have in asking for passenger votes on the safe take-off speed of a jumbo jet.
What the Gove meant was the 'warnings' from Remain were false. As he is cited as a smart alec, then his behaviour is particularly odious (plus ca change). A smart person who ACTUALLY read the IMF, the economists' letter and the Treasury analysis know that what they predicted was once BREXIT occurs the UK will be worse off than had they not exited.
What Gove is doing is shifting the temporal frame of reference to destroy straw men.
Climate change deniers do the same trick, it snowed yesterday. You can't tell me the weather next week.
Why because he is unspeakable and unpleasant man, I can't stand smart people pretending to be stupid misusing their intelligence for rhetoric. The time to judge the IMF etc predictions is over a complete economic cycle after Brexit. Based on data to this point, the UK has gained from being in the EU. In case he is just an idiot, then all is forgiven.
I would be remiss to point out as Professor Wren-Lewis does in his blog, the devaluation means we are in fact poorer already, just as he predicted.
What's wrong with the world, what's wrong is smart people playing politics as a game. Who says things they know are misleading and smile about it afterwards. Scientists rarely make 'good' politicians for this reason. Who's to blame, us all because we are genuinely stupid. Would actually smart, people, actually believe the Canary, the Sun, the Mail etc etc.
Tuesday, 6 September 2016
Thursday, 25 August 2016
The coyote moment
You know the one, you are off the cliff but holding still with legs whirling.
The liberal metropolitan elite of the country has reached the bargaining stage, OK its BREXIT but let us not hope its too bad.
The economic indicators are stable thus far. This has a lot to do with nothing happening. Are markets actually wise,? Nope. There is no more wisdom in crowds than in one individual. Groups of people believe lots of stupid things. (horoscopes for example). You can't vote the earth flat.
No economic analysis said we would collapse day of vote plus 1. The trouble starts when BREXIT begins. This might be a year from now, it might be two or three.
As Simon Wren-Lewis and Paul Krugman have pointed out, we will be worse in the long term. Their arguments are plausible and articulate. They have data too; I know who needs experts!
My own prediction is that BREXIT will be mishandled, most models of life underestimate the potential for sheer stupidy or malice on the part of decision makers. In theory, it could be handled sensibly, but then in theory children should not squabble over who gets which one of two essentially identical toys.
It looks to me that hard BREXIT is on the cards, that is a complete break and WTO rules at best. In which case, we will see a run on sterling and a major recession. Politics will make it all worse, not better.
Why hard BREXIT, because the anti-European fanatic fringe of magical thinkers on the Tory party (Rees-Mogg, Jenkin, Cash, Gove etc) will bring down the government over any issue before allowing free movement or something like it. Enough of the people's front of Judea will vote against apple pie if a Tory government proposed it and there was a chance to defeat them in a vote. What about the pro-EU liberal wing of the Tory and Labour party, look not to princes (ponces?) for salvation.
They believe in common sense, but above all, they believe in having a job tomorrow. Given the choice (and they always are), party loyalty and salved by the false hope for a better tomorrow will ensure the liberal majority will back down in the face of truly committed who would, in fact, lose everything. It was ever thus.
Anyway, what news of the Corporal, doing wonders in the US. He is not done with us, not by a long chalk.
You know the one, you are off the cliff but holding still with legs whirling.
The liberal metropolitan elite of the country has reached the bargaining stage, OK its BREXIT but let us not hope its too bad.
The economic indicators are stable thus far. This has a lot to do with nothing happening. Are markets actually wise,? Nope. There is no more wisdom in crowds than in one individual. Groups of people believe lots of stupid things. (horoscopes for example). You can't vote the earth flat.
No economic analysis said we would collapse day of vote plus 1. The trouble starts when BREXIT begins. This might be a year from now, it might be two or three.
As Simon Wren-Lewis and Paul Krugman have pointed out, we will be worse in the long term. Their arguments are plausible and articulate. They have data too; I know who needs experts!
My own prediction is that BREXIT will be mishandled, most models of life underestimate the potential for sheer stupidy or malice on the part of decision makers. In theory, it could be handled sensibly, but then in theory children should not squabble over who gets which one of two essentially identical toys.
It looks to me that hard BREXIT is on the cards, that is a complete break and WTO rules at best. In which case, we will see a run on sterling and a major recession. Politics will make it all worse, not better.
Why hard BREXIT, because the anti-European fanatic fringe of magical thinkers on the Tory party (Rees-Mogg, Jenkin, Cash, Gove etc) will bring down the government over any issue before allowing free movement or something like it. Enough of the people's front of Judea will vote against apple pie if a Tory government proposed it and there was a chance to defeat them in a vote. What about the pro-EU liberal wing of the Tory and Labour party, look not to princes (ponces?) for salvation.
They believe in common sense, but above all, they believe in having a job tomorrow. Given the choice (and they always are), party loyalty and salved by the false hope for a better tomorrow will ensure the liberal majority will back down in the face of truly committed who would, in fact, lose everything. It was ever thus.
Anyway, what news of the Corporal, doing wonders in the US. He is not done with us, not by a long chalk.
Friday, 22 July 2016
Nein Danke, Non Merci
If we could read more than in English it would help. In the Daily Fail, May's trip overseas was reported a triumph. In fact, the messages in German and French were stark, bye bye. France especially is glad to be rid of us, we are out and we will be punished.
Instead of the brave new world of sunny uplands, we are tumbling into recession.
Sturgeon is trying to ride the tiger, blaming Westminster for everything while holding off committing to a referendum. Unfortunately for her and for Scotland, Indy2 it is. Let me predict referendum by May 2017.
Expect the shit storm trifecta, Brexit, Sexit and Trump. Bingo, the end of days.
Only a self-evidently functional society such as the West could contemplate such a massive headlong jump off the cliff. Rather than having nothing to lose, it is because we feel able to treat these things as a game that has been our undoing.
Wednesday, 13 July 2016
Leopard skin shoes don't change their spots
Quelle surprise
May is a hard right politician, should we be surprised that she has appointed a hard right cabinet?
Do not trust to hope, it has forsaken these lands.
The re-animation of the chief clown, liar and cynic to be our new foreign minister. To think we laughed at other overseas governments (hello Greece, Italy) antics. It turns out we are going big. So long the special relationship (President Kenyan and Secretary nurse Ratchet), but the clown likes Putin? We are so screwed.
Recession has now started, it is going to be a hard Brexit. Scotland will leave, hurling us (both Scotland and rUK) deeper in the abyss.
The disgraced Liam Fox is back and David Davies, a genuine wing nut who like a broken clock is right twice a day, is heading tearing us out the EU.
Seen from the outside, it is perhaps just deserts for the cruelty of empire. Seen from the inside, it feels like being trapped in a building with people who are clearly delusional but think you are the deluded one.
Our social fabric will not survive the coming recession. I predict violent disorder.
Quelle surprise
May is a hard right politician, should we be surprised that she has appointed a hard right cabinet?
Do not trust to hope, it has forsaken these lands.
The re-animation of the chief clown, liar and cynic to be our new foreign minister. To think we laughed at other overseas governments (hello Greece, Italy) antics. It turns out we are going big. So long the special relationship (President Kenyan and Secretary nurse Ratchet), but the clown likes Putin? We are so screwed.
Recession has now started, it is going to be a hard Brexit. Scotland will leave, hurling us (both Scotland and rUK) deeper in the abyss.
The disgraced Liam Fox is back and David Davies, a genuine wing nut who like a broken clock is right twice a day, is heading tearing us out the EU.
Seen from the outside, it is perhaps just deserts for the cruelty of empire. Seen from the inside, it feels like being trapped in a building with people who are clearly delusional but think you are the deluded one.
Our social fabric will not survive the coming recession. I predict violent disorder.
Wednesday, 6 July 2016
Hope for a better tomorrow may have died for a generation in the sands of Iraq
Before going on to comment from a UK perspective, I must mention the 250 dead in the past few days in Bagdad, the 100's of thousands dead in Iraq all due to the war and the US, UK military dead. I am deeply sad about their loss. Their lives were wasted on a worthless and stupid cause. The loss, unimaginable in its pain, goes on today and every day in Iraq.
I was against it before, during and after. Not because I was super smart or well informed.
I did not think we should do it because
1 Saddam was a monster, who someone would remove at some point. However, he was a semi-rational mass murdered interested in his own survival.
2 He was not a credible danger to the UK, he did no possess rocketry or weapons capable of doing us harm
3 He might fund terrorists, but he was not an incubator or motivator of them. (Unlike more religious dominated dictatorships)
I felt there were better plans
1 Sanctions were making him weaker but it was killing innocent children. Weapons inspectors and no-fly zones seemed a better route.
2 Other countries such as France and Germany were in favour of these other steps. Only an angry US was for invasion.
I felt it would not work because
1 War is always unpredictable.
2 Vietnam (USA) and Afganistan (Russia) showed the problems of creating a determined resistance even where the opponents are mismatched. (Further, the Russians fought and failed with a full "gloves off" approach so beloved of arm chair hawks that is not possible in a democracy)
3 Democracies tire of war, they look for exists and quick wins. Ergo NO strategy that requires long term nation building ever works. it is dishonest to plan otherwise.
4 I feared militant Islam would be strengthened. People capable of suicide bombing or attacks are to be feared, deterrence will not work.
I listened to Robin Cook and Menzies Campbell who both in mind at the time gave compelling arguments against the decision to take this step.
Much as I admired the investment in schools, health services and general energy of Blair (never voted for him, always been Liberal) I was not convinced by his arguments for the war, I found them evasive and lacking in depth.
However, it is beyond doubt that the legacy of Iraq destroyed our faith in politicians. It was palpably mismanaged and an obvious failure. The continued refusal to say so, apologise, account for and learn from it, has contaminated the whole system. The deaths of so many for so little, is criminal.
Perhaps this report is the long overdue purge, but I doubt it. Already the report is being used by some as a stick to beat an opponent du jour. Settling scores with Blair may help some, but there are wider issues about what sort of world we wish and how to achieve it.
This short-term tactical gain over long term lesson, is precisely what has blighted this country.
That cost, remains trivial in comparison to the deaths, the untold suffering of Iraq's and the loss of UK / US citizens.
Before going on to comment from a UK perspective, I must mention the 250 dead in the past few days in Bagdad, the 100's of thousands dead in Iraq all due to the war and the US, UK military dead. I am deeply sad about their loss. Their lives were wasted on a worthless and stupid cause. The loss, unimaginable in its pain, goes on today and every day in Iraq.
I was against it before, during and after. Not because I was super smart or well informed.
I did not think we should do it because
1 Saddam was a monster, who someone would remove at some point. However, he was a semi-rational mass murdered interested in his own survival.
2 He was not a credible danger to the UK, he did no possess rocketry or weapons capable of doing us harm
3 He might fund terrorists, but he was not an incubator or motivator of them. (Unlike more religious dominated dictatorships)
I felt there were better plans
1 Sanctions were making him weaker but it was killing innocent children. Weapons inspectors and no-fly zones seemed a better route.
2 Other countries such as France and Germany were in favour of these other steps. Only an angry US was for invasion.
I felt it would not work because
1 War is always unpredictable.
2 Vietnam (USA) and Afganistan (Russia) showed the problems of creating a determined resistance even where the opponents are mismatched. (Further, the Russians fought and failed with a full "gloves off" approach so beloved of arm chair hawks that is not possible in a democracy)
3 Democracies tire of war, they look for exists and quick wins. Ergo NO strategy that requires long term nation building ever works. it is dishonest to plan otherwise.
4 I feared militant Islam would be strengthened. People capable of suicide bombing or attacks are to be feared, deterrence will not work.
I listened to Robin Cook and Menzies Campbell who both in mind at the time gave compelling arguments against the decision to take this step.
Much as I admired the investment in schools, health services and general energy of Blair (never voted for him, always been Liberal) I was not convinced by his arguments for the war, I found them evasive and lacking in depth.
However, it is beyond doubt that the legacy of Iraq destroyed our faith in politicians. It was palpably mismanaged and an obvious failure. The continued refusal to say so, apologise, account for and learn from it, has contaminated the whole system. The deaths of so many for so little, is criminal.
Perhaps this report is the long overdue purge, but I doubt it. Already the report is being used by some as a stick to beat an opponent du jour. Settling scores with Blair may help some, but there are wider issues about what sort of world we wish and how to achieve it.
This short-term tactical gain over long term lesson, is precisely what has blighted this country.
That cost, remains trivial in comparison to the deaths, the untold suffering of Iraq's and the loss of UK / US citizens.
Friday, 1 July 2016
schadenfreude
An example: Carswell, another "decent (TM), intelligent visionary", will be chucked out of UKIP, hopefully ending his public role if they stand against him.
I am not a fan of the corporal but as my previous incarnation and hero said, if I must have tyranny let me have it unadulterated without the base note of hypocrisy.
More accurately, I won't miss the prissy sucking up to the corporal, claiming he is a visionary and pretending to yourself and us that your hands are clean. Hannan & Carswell, take a bow.
You can protest all you like (too much), but your names and reputations are stained by what the corporal will now unleash. I hope when you stop fooling yourself, the shame you feel when your children grow up and see just how you conducted yourself with whom you consorted, torments you.
An example: Carswell, another "decent (TM), intelligent visionary", will be chucked out of UKIP, hopefully ending his public role if they stand against him.
I am not a fan of the corporal but as my previous incarnation and hero said, if I must have tyranny let me have it unadulterated without the base note of hypocrisy.
More accurately, I won't miss the prissy sucking up to the corporal, claiming he is a visionary and pretending to yourself and us that your hands are clean. Hannan & Carswell, take a bow.
You can protest all you like (too much), but your names and reputations are stained by what the corporal will now unleash. I hope when you stop fooling yourself, the shame you feel when your children grow up and see just how you conducted yourself with whom you consorted, torments you.
Dare you, double dare
Gove, he ends Cameron's career, ends Boris Johnson's, pretty certain he has ended his own and now by running on "full fat" Brexit with a kicking of his ain folk* he will end the country. Why I wonder was he not spotted as a true believer and stopped. I knew he was one, just listen to his policy pronouncements and achievements. I though the Tory party got rid of these people. Man, he is a serious wreckin machine.
Since May is going to be elected, Gove's only game here is to force May to hard Brexit, crash the economy and along with it the Tory party, what's left of the post-war consensus and civil peace. This is the door through which the corporal will walk.
I do not want to get too misty eyed over Therea "I am here to do a job" May. Really, that's Theresa "I oppose Brexit but my one contribution was to propose ending the right to fair trials and human rights so loved of those nasty Europeans" May. Who is such a good committed person she kept her face hidden throughout the referendum. Another chancer, who fancies the big time even if the country has to get damaged for it.
She is massively deluded, no one outside the Tory MPs likes her either but in the shit storm that has kicked off, she looks like safety. In the contest of who can sound most like the corporal on immigration, I say less than 100 thousand, you say lower, I say 50 thousand, you say lower, I say nothing and you say deal., she will win having a career of immigrant bashing behind her. (The corporal will go for -1M wait and see). Well, I wonder what your father would say now, playing this game with this shower? Proud of your principle and compassion, I doubt it. No doubt proud you have reached this level, but what gains a woman to inherit the earth but lose their soul.
To avoid doubt, if I had a vote, it would be for tried and tested Theresa, on the same basis that I would rather loose my left hand than my right (lessers of two weevils as they used to say in the Navy).
*This refers to his brave new dawn of ending the subsidy known as Barnett for Scotland. This would be bad for poor people and just about everyone else in Scotland, spell the end of the Union and speaks to a mind which revels in creative destruction. Don't worry, the SNP rage machine is in overdrive daring you, double daring you. I know you will because you think doing it will make us better, instead of ill, unhappy and rebellious.
Gove, he ends Cameron's career, ends Boris Johnson's, pretty certain he has ended his own and now by running on "full fat" Brexit with a kicking of his ain folk* he will end the country. Why I wonder was he not spotted as a true believer and stopped. I knew he was one, just listen to his policy pronouncements and achievements. I though the Tory party got rid of these people. Man, he is a serious wreckin machine.
Since May is going to be elected, Gove's only game here is to force May to hard Brexit, crash the economy and along with it the Tory party, what's left of the post-war consensus and civil peace. This is the door through which the corporal will walk.
I do not want to get too misty eyed over Therea "I am here to do a job" May. Really, that's Theresa "I oppose Brexit but my one contribution was to propose ending the right to fair trials and human rights so loved of those nasty Europeans" May. Who is such a good committed person she kept her face hidden throughout the referendum. Another chancer, who fancies the big time even if the country has to get damaged for it.
She is massively deluded, no one outside the Tory MPs likes her either but in the shit storm that has kicked off, she looks like safety. In the contest of who can sound most like the corporal on immigration, I say less than 100 thousand, you say lower, I say 50 thousand, you say lower, I say nothing and you say deal., she will win having a career of immigrant bashing behind her. (The corporal will go for -1M wait and see). Well, I wonder what your father would say now, playing this game with this shower? Proud of your principle and compassion, I doubt it. No doubt proud you have reached this level, but what gains a woman to inherit the earth but lose their soul.
To avoid doubt, if I had a vote, it would be for tried and tested Theresa, on the same basis that I would rather loose my left hand than my right (lessers of two weevils as they used to say in the Navy).
*This refers to his brave new dawn of ending the subsidy known as Barnett for Scotland. This would be bad for poor people and just about everyone else in Scotland, spell the end of the Union and speaks to a mind which revels in creative destruction. Don't worry, the SNP rage machine is in overdrive daring you, double daring you. I know you will because you think doing it will make us better, instead of ill, unhappy and rebellious.
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