Tuesday, 6 September 2016

The wisdom of 52 %

I listened to Michael 'cut-price plotter' Gove, oh the 52 % of the great British public know more than the IMF etc etc. So that's it, so long as you get 52 % you are right. I agree that you have won the argument if you get > 50 % of the vote. However, it does NOT make you right. (In fact, the fallacy in his argument can be seen by his previous rhetorical mocking of the economists, only one is sufficient).

Let's try > 50 % vote to castrate male sex offenders, right ?

Would it matter if 50 % rejected evolution? Now if 50 % of qualified scientists who had studied it felt that way I'd listen, but I have no more interest in the majority analysis of facts than I have in asking for  passenger votes on the safe take-off speed of a jumbo jet.

What the Gove meant was the 'warnings' from Remain were false. As he is cited as a smart alec, then his behaviour is particularly odious (plus ca change). A smart person who ACTUALLY read the IMF, the economists' letter and the Treasury analysis know that what they predicted was once BREXIT occurs the UK will be worse off than had they not exited.

What Gove is doing is shifting the temporal frame of reference to destroy straw men.
Climate change deniers do the same trick, it snowed yesterday. You can't tell me the weather next week.

Why because he is unspeakable and unpleasant man, I can't stand smart people pretending to be stupid misusing their intelligence for rhetoric. The time to judge the IMF etc predictions is over a complete economic cycle after Brexit. Based on data to this point, the UK has gained from being in the EU. In case he is just an idiot, then all is forgiven.

I would be remiss to point out as Professor Wren-Lewis does in his blog, the devaluation means we are in fact poorer already, just as he predicted.

What's wrong with the world, what's wrong is smart people playing politics as a game. Who says things they know are misleading and smile about it afterwards.  Scientists rarely make 'good' politicians for this reason. Who's to blame, us all because we are genuinely stupid. Would actually smart, people, actually believe the Canary, the Sun, the Mail etc etc.

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