The end of Britain as a normal country

Say what you like about the British, we do it in style. Republics and democracies fail from within. Ours has failed.

The elite (as used to be known) of civil society, business, parliament, professions, trade unions and universities all argued by large majorities for the UK to remain in the EU. Yet a small band of this elite had the genius idea of gaining power by using the popular will expressed through a referendum. The public obliged and the whole edifice has come down because no one believed it could happen. It is quite a coup. This is the lasting effect of Brexit, its not a new idea its how all big changes occur (in these pre end fof EU days, can I use the French phrase 'trahison des clercs' its not quite right but has a ring) .

The Labour party is going to tear itself to shreds. The hard left are not going to give up, this is their chance for a revolution. Jeremy Corbyn and his praetorian guard have their eyes on the far future, they are not the elite. Even if they are defeated then the Labour party will be split beyond recognition, if he wins, 170 MPs (to some extent the defeated elite) will be deselected forcing them to oblivion and succeeded by true believers. How did Corbyn and his fellows get to this position, because the elite fearing for their jobs went along, thinking he could be managed, grateful for the extra members he apparently brings. Unlike them, he means it when he wants big change.

The Tory party is also hopelessly split. No serious person believes they can deliver what the Brexiters promised (sorry outlined potential for). The only question is how many of the defeated elite go along with the Farage style populism in an effort to stay afloat.

The clear winner and genius of all this is Nigel Farage. He prepared the pitch, encouraging fear in the Tory right for their elite positions, it is they who embraced his cause. In Boris Johnson he found the ambitious dupe, the front man he cannot be, who would serve to batter down the last defences of the elite. It is a moot point whether Johnson wished to win, abstractly yes, in he likes to win games but to face this mess, I doubt it.  Boris, I have read his books, is neither very smart nor very hard working, merely temporarily popular. The corporal is always the one to watch.

As we reflect upon the rubble of the UK with outright racism in public, an MP murdered in the street, Momentum protesters with exterminate vermin T-shirts and a shattered elite squabbling who can be Caesar whilst the republic falls, we can ask what next?

If you feel angry about Boris or Gove etc, don't worry too much. When republics fall, these transitionary people usually get their rewards as the popular will does not really like them either. Their mistake is to think they can control it, no one ever does. These people are the elite, the only people who really liked them are their fellow elites whose morale they shattered. You might ride the tiger for a while but in the end it eats you.

My guess both the hard left and hard right (who have so much in common) will fight this out in the streets for control. Democracy requires compromise but neither believes in sharing power, so in the end its violence. The collateral damage is society and the result a failed state, of rule of the strong (think Somalia under Adid). When and what sequence to watch for? Timing is uncertain but steps along the way mishandled Brexit is for sure, either economic calamity or betrayal of anti-immigrant popular will. Either outcome strengthens extremes. An outsider comes to the mainstream party who breaks taboos about the role of parliament and dissent. They will use the people's will as a weapon either through referenda or protest. Near the end, what remains of the civil society elite embrace their strong man or woman to bring order to chaos.

Who is to blame? Well in my view, everyone and no one. It is human nature. If London is so tolerant why did not we not try harder to make the rest of the country like London sooner? If we fear the popular will in an unequal society(as elites really should) why did we pander and celebrate those who were harnessing it. Why not do something for the people before it reached this stage? Because those in the elite like being the elite. Well, it was nice while it lasted.

In case this sounds like praise for the elite, it failed because it was rotten to the core. Insufficient attention to the effects of globalisation, seeking to blame the other, running frantic do or die campaigns with demonisation of opponents as a show not belief and making serious mistakes. Where to start on their blunders, a short list that could fill a blog MP's expenses, Iraq war, housing crash, housing shortage, paedophile rings, way over done austerity, politics as a game for insiders, no apologies.