The wisdom of 52 %
I listened to Michael 'cut-price plotter' Gove, oh the 52 % of the great British public know more than the IMF etc etc. So that's it, so long as you get 52 % you are right. I agree that you have won the argument if you get > 50 % of the vote. However, it does NOT make you right. (In fact, the fallacy in his argument can be seen by his previous rhetorical mocking of the economists, only one is sufficient).
Let's try > 50 % vote to castrate male sex offenders, right ?
Would it matter if 50 % rejected evolution? Now if 50 % of qualified scientists who had studied it felt that way I'd listen, but I have no more interest in the majority analysis of facts than I have in asking for passenger votes on the safe take-off speed of a jumbo jet.
What the Gove meant was the 'warnings' from Remain were false. As he is cited as a smart alec, then his behaviour is particularly odious (plus ca change). A smart person who ACTUALLY read the IMF, the economists' letter and the Treasury analysis know that what they predicted was once BREXIT occurs the UK will be worse off than had they not exited.
What Gove is doing is shifting the temporal frame of reference to destroy straw men.
Climate change deniers do the same trick, it snowed yesterday. You can't tell me the weather next week.
Why because he is unspeakable and unpleasant man, I can't stand smart people pretending to be stupid misusing their intelligence for rhetoric. The time to judge the IMF etc predictions is over a complete economic cycle after Brexit. Based on data to this point, the UK has gained from being in the EU. In case he is just an idiot, then all is forgiven.
I would be remiss to point out as Professor Wren-Lewis does in his blog, the devaluation means we are in fact poorer already, just as he predicted.
What's wrong with the world, what's wrong is smart people playing politics as a game. Who says things they know are misleading and smile about it afterwards. Scientists rarely make 'good' politicians for this reason. Who's to blame, us all because we are genuinely stupid. Would actually smart, people, actually believe the Canary, the Sun, the Mail etc etc.
Tuesday, 6 September 2016
Thursday, 25 August 2016
The coyote moment
You know the one, you are off the cliff but holding still with legs whirling.
The liberal metropolitan elite of the country has reached the bargaining stage, OK its BREXIT but let us not hope its too bad.
The economic indicators are stable thus far. This has a lot to do with nothing happening. Are markets actually wise,? Nope. There is no more wisdom in crowds than in one individual. Groups of people believe lots of stupid things. (horoscopes for example). You can't vote the earth flat.
No economic analysis said we would collapse day of vote plus 1. The trouble starts when BREXIT begins. This might be a year from now, it might be two or three.
As Simon Wren-Lewis and Paul Krugman have pointed out, we will be worse in the long term. Their arguments are plausible and articulate. They have data too; I know who needs experts!
My own prediction is that BREXIT will be mishandled, most models of life underestimate the potential for sheer stupidy or malice on the part of decision makers. In theory, it could be handled sensibly, but then in theory children should not squabble over who gets which one of two essentially identical toys.
It looks to me that hard BREXIT is on the cards, that is a complete break and WTO rules at best. In which case, we will see a run on sterling and a major recession. Politics will make it all worse, not better.
Why hard BREXIT, because the anti-European fanatic fringe of magical thinkers on the Tory party (Rees-Mogg, Jenkin, Cash, Gove etc) will bring down the government over any issue before allowing free movement or something like it. Enough of the people's front of Judea will vote against apple pie if a Tory government proposed it and there was a chance to defeat them in a vote. What about the pro-EU liberal wing of the Tory and Labour party, look not to princes (ponces?) for salvation.
They believe in common sense, but above all, they believe in having a job tomorrow. Given the choice (and they always are), party loyalty and salved by the false hope for a better tomorrow will ensure the liberal majority will back down in the face of truly committed who would, in fact, lose everything. It was ever thus.
Anyway, what news of the Corporal, doing wonders in the US. He is not done with us, not by a long chalk.
You know the one, you are off the cliff but holding still with legs whirling.
The liberal metropolitan elite of the country has reached the bargaining stage, OK its BREXIT but let us not hope its too bad.
The economic indicators are stable thus far. This has a lot to do with nothing happening. Are markets actually wise,? Nope. There is no more wisdom in crowds than in one individual. Groups of people believe lots of stupid things. (horoscopes for example). You can't vote the earth flat.
No economic analysis said we would collapse day of vote plus 1. The trouble starts when BREXIT begins. This might be a year from now, it might be two or three.
As Simon Wren-Lewis and Paul Krugman have pointed out, we will be worse in the long term. Their arguments are plausible and articulate. They have data too; I know who needs experts!
My own prediction is that BREXIT will be mishandled, most models of life underestimate the potential for sheer stupidy or malice on the part of decision makers. In theory, it could be handled sensibly, but then in theory children should not squabble over who gets which one of two essentially identical toys.
It looks to me that hard BREXIT is on the cards, that is a complete break and WTO rules at best. In which case, we will see a run on sterling and a major recession. Politics will make it all worse, not better.
Why hard BREXIT, because the anti-European fanatic fringe of magical thinkers on the Tory party (Rees-Mogg, Jenkin, Cash, Gove etc) will bring down the government over any issue before allowing free movement or something like it. Enough of the people's front of Judea will vote against apple pie if a Tory government proposed it and there was a chance to defeat them in a vote. What about the pro-EU liberal wing of the Tory and Labour party, look not to princes (ponces?) for salvation.
They believe in common sense, but above all, they believe in having a job tomorrow. Given the choice (and they always are), party loyalty and salved by the false hope for a better tomorrow will ensure the liberal majority will back down in the face of truly committed who would, in fact, lose everything. It was ever thus.
Anyway, what news of the Corporal, doing wonders in the US. He is not done with us, not by a long chalk.
Friday, 22 July 2016
Nein Danke, Non Merci
If we could read more than in English it would help. In the Daily Fail, May's trip overseas was reported a triumph. In fact, the messages in German and French were stark, bye bye. France especially is glad to be rid of us, we are out and we will be punished.
Instead of the brave new world of sunny uplands, we are tumbling into recession.
Sturgeon is trying to ride the tiger, blaming Westminster for everything while holding off committing to a referendum. Unfortunately for her and for Scotland, Indy2 it is. Let me predict referendum by May 2017.
Expect the shit storm trifecta, Brexit, Sexit and Trump. Bingo, the end of days.
Only a self-evidently functional society such as the West could contemplate such a massive headlong jump off the cliff. Rather than having nothing to lose, it is because we feel able to treat these things as a game that has been our undoing.
Wednesday, 13 July 2016
Leopard skin shoes don't change their spots
Quelle surprise
May is a hard right politician, should we be surprised that she has appointed a hard right cabinet?
Do not trust to hope, it has forsaken these lands.
The re-animation of the chief clown, liar and cynic to be our new foreign minister. To think we laughed at other overseas governments (hello Greece, Italy) antics. It turns out we are going big. So long the special relationship (President Kenyan and Secretary nurse Ratchet), but the clown likes Putin? We are so screwed.
Recession has now started, it is going to be a hard Brexit. Scotland will leave, hurling us (both Scotland and rUK) deeper in the abyss.
The disgraced Liam Fox is back and David Davies, a genuine wing nut who like a broken clock is right twice a day, is heading tearing us out the EU.
Seen from the outside, it is perhaps just deserts for the cruelty of empire. Seen from the inside, it feels like being trapped in a building with people who are clearly delusional but think you are the deluded one.
Our social fabric will not survive the coming recession. I predict violent disorder.
Quelle surprise
May is a hard right politician, should we be surprised that she has appointed a hard right cabinet?
Do not trust to hope, it has forsaken these lands.
The re-animation of the chief clown, liar and cynic to be our new foreign minister. To think we laughed at other overseas governments (hello Greece, Italy) antics. It turns out we are going big. So long the special relationship (President Kenyan and Secretary nurse Ratchet), but the clown likes Putin? We are so screwed.
Recession has now started, it is going to be a hard Brexit. Scotland will leave, hurling us (both Scotland and rUK) deeper in the abyss.
The disgraced Liam Fox is back and David Davies, a genuine wing nut who like a broken clock is right twice a day, is heading tearing us out the EU.
Seen from the outside, it is perhaps just deserts for the cruelty of empire. Seen from the inside, it feels like being trapped in a building with people who are clearly delusional but think you are the deluded one.
Our social fabric will not survive the coming recession. I predict violent disorder.
Wednesday, 6 July 2016
Hope for a better tomorrow may have died for a generation in the sands of Iraq
Before going on to comment from a UK perspective, I must mention the 250 dead in the past few days in Bagdad, the 100's of thousands dead in Iraq all due to the war and the US, UK military dead. I am deeply sad about their loss. Their lives were wasted on a worthless and stupid cause. The loss, unimaginable in its pain, goes on today and every day in Iraq.
I was against it before, during and after. Not because I was super smart or well informed.
I did not think we should do it because
1 Saddam was a monster, who someone would remove at some point. However, he was a semi-rational mass murdered interested in his own survival.
2 He was not a credible danger to the UK, he did no possess rocketry or weapons capable of doing us harm
3 He might fund terrorists, but he was not an incubator or motivator of them. (Unlike more religious dominated dictatorships)
I felt there were better plans
1 Sanctions were making him weaker but it was killing innocent children. Weapons inspectors and no-fly zones seemed a better route.
2 Other countries such as France and Germany were in favour of these other steps. Only an angry US was for invasion.
I felt it would not work because
1 War is always unpredictable.
2 Vietnam (USA) and Afganistan (Russia) showed the problems of creating a determined resistance even where the opponents are mismatched. (Further, the Russians fought and failed with a full "gloves off" approach so beloved of arm chair hawks that is not possible in a democracy)
3 Democracies tire of war, they look for exists and quick wins. Ergo NO strategy that requires long term nation building ever works. it is dishonest to plan otherwise.
4 I feared militant Islam would be strengthened. People capable of suicide bombing or attacks are to be feared, deterrence will not work.
I listened to Robin Cook and Menzies Campbell who both in mind at the time gave compelling arguments against the decision to take this step.
Much as I admired the investment in schools, health services and general energy of Blair (never voted for him, always been Liberal) I was not convinced by his arguments for the war, I found them evasive and lacking in depth.
However, it is beyond doubt that the legacy of Iraq destroyed our faith in politicians. It was palpably mismanaged and an obvious failure. The continued refusal to say so, apologise, account for and learn from it, has contaminated the whole system. The deaths of so many for so little, is criminal.
Perhaps this report is the long overdue purge, but I doubt it. Already the report is being used by some as a stick to beat an opponent du jour. Settling scores with Blair may help some, but there are wider issues about what sort of world we wish and how to achieve it.
This short-term tactical gain over long term lesson, is precisely what has blighted this country.
That cost, remains trivial in comparison to the deaths, the untold suffering of Iraq's and the loss of UK / US citizens.
Before going on to comment from a UK perspective, I must mention the 250 dead in the past few days in Bagdad, the 100's of thousands dead in Iraq all due to the war and the US, UK military dead. I am deeply sad about their loss. Their lives were wasted on a worthless and stupid cause. The loss, unimaginable in its pain, goes on today and every day in Iraq.
I was against it before, during and after. Not because I was super smart or well informed.
I did not think we should do it because
1 Saddam was a monster, who someone would remove at some point. However, he was a semi-rational mass murdered interested in his own survival.
2 He was not a credible danger to the UK, he did no possess rocketry or weapons capable of doing us harm
3 He might fund terrorists, but he was not an incubator or motivator of them. (Unlike more religious dominated dictatorships)
I felt there were better plans
1 Sanctions were making him weaker but it was killing innocent children. Weapons inspectors and no-fly zones seemed a better route.
2 Other countries such as France and Germany were in favour of these other steps. Only an angry US was for invasion.
I felt it would not work because
1 War is always unpredictable.
2 Vietnam (USA) and Afganistan (Russia) showed the problems of creating a determined resistance even where the opponents are mismatched. (Further, the Russians fought and failed with a full "gloves off" approach so beloved of arm chair hawks that is not possible in a democracy)
3 Democracies tire of war, they look for exists and quick wins. Ergo NO strategy that requires long term nation building ever works. it is dishonest to plan otherwise.
4 I feared militant Islam would be strengthened. People capable of suicide bombing or attacks are to be feared, deterrence will not work.
I listened to Robin Cook and Menzies Campbell who both in mind at the time gave compelling arguments against the decision to take this step.
Much as I admired the investment in schools, health services and general energy of Blair (never voted for him, always been Liberal) I was not convinced by his arguments for the war, I found them evasive and lacking in depth.
However, it is beyond doubt that the legacy of Iraq destroyed our faith in politicians. It was palpably mismanaged and an obvious failure. The continued refusal to say so, apologise, account for and learn from it, has contaminated the whole system. The deaths of so many for so little, is criminal.
Perhaps this report is the long overdue purge, but I doubt it. Already the report is being used by some as a stick to beat an opponent du jour. Settling scores with Blair may help some, but there are wider issues about what sort of world we wish and how to achieve it.
This short-term tactical gain over long term lesson, is precisely what has blighted this country.
That cost, remains trivial in comparison to the deaths, the untold suffering of Iraq's and the loss of UK / US citizens.
Friday, 1 July 2016
schadenfreude
An example: Carswell, another "decent (TM), intelligent visionary", will be chucked out of UKIP, hopefully ending his public role if they stand against him.
I am not a fan of the corporal but as my previous incarnation and hero said, if I must have tyranny let me have it unadulterated without the base note of hypocrisy.
More accurately, I won't miss the prissy sucking up to the corporal, claiming he is a visionary and pretending to yourself and us that your hands are clean. Hannan & Carswell, take a bow.
You can protest all you like (too much), but your names and reputations are stained by what the corporal will now unleash. I hope when you stop fooling yourself, the shame you feel when your children grow up and see just how you conducted yourself with whom you consorted, torments you.
An example: Carswell, another "decent (TM), intelligent visionary", will be chucked out of UKIP, hopefully ending his public role if they stand against him.
I am not a fan of the corporal but as my previous incarnation and hero said, if I must have tyranny let me have it unadulterated without the base note of hypocrisy.
More accurately, I won't miss the prissy sucking up to the corporal, claiming he is a visionary and pretending to yourself and us that your hands are clean. Hannan & Carswell, take a bow.
You can protest all you like (too much), but your names and reputations are stained by what the corporal will now unleash. I hope when you stop fooling yourself, the shame you feel when your children grow up and see just how you conducted yourself with whom you consorted, torments you.
Dare you, double dare
Gove, he ends Cameron's career, ends Boris Johnson's, pretty certain he has ended his own and now by running on "full fat" Brexit with a kicking of his ain folk* he will end the country. Why I wonder was he not spotted as a true believer and stopped. I knew he was one, just listen to his policy pronouncements and achievements. I though the Tory party got rid of these people. Man, he is a serious wreckin machine.
Since May is going to be elected, Gove's only game here is to force May to hard Brexit, crash the economy and along with it the Tory party, what's left of the post-war consensus and civil peace. This is the door through which the corporal will walk.
I do not want to get too misty eyed over Therea "I am here to do a job" May. Really, that's Theresa "I oppose Brexit but my one contribution was to propose ending the right to fair trials and human rights so loved of those nasty Europeans" May. Who is such a good committed person she kept her face hidden throughout the referendum. Another chancer, who fancies the big time even if the country has to get damaged for it.
She is massively deluded, no one outside the Tory MPs likes her either but in the shit storm that has kicked off, she looks like safety. In the contest of who can sound most like the corporal on immigration, I say less than 100 thousand, you say lower, I say 50 thousand, you say lower, I say nothing and you say deal., she will win having a career of immigrant bashing behind her. (The corporal will go for -1M wait and see). Well, I wonder what your father would say now, playing this game with this shower? Proud of your principle and compassion, I doubt it. No doubt proud you have reached this level, but what gains a woman to inherit the earth but lose their soul.
To avoid doubt, if I had a vote, it would be for tried and tested Theresa, on the same basis that I would rather loose my left hand than my right (lessers of two weevils as they used to say in the Navy).
*This refers to his brave new dawn of ending the subsidy known as Barnett for Scotland. This would be bad for poor people and just about everyone else in Scotland, spell the end of the Union and speaks to a mind which revels in creative destruction. Don't worry, the SNP rage machine is in overdrive daring you, double daring you. I know you will because you think doing it will make us better, instead of ill, unhappy and rebellious.
Gove, he ends Cameron's career, ends Boris Johnson's, pretty certain he has ended his own and now by running on "full fat" Brexit with a kicking of his ain folk* he will end the country. Why I wonder was he not spotted as a true believer and stopped. I knew he was one, just listen to his policy pronouncements and achievements. I though the Tory party got rid of these people. Man, he is a serious wreckin machine.
Since May is going to be elected, Gove's only game here is to force May to hard Brexit, crash the economy and along with it the Tory party, what's left of the post-war consensus and civil peace. This is the door through which the corporal will walk.
I do not want to get too misty eyed over Therea "I am here to do a job" May. Really, that's Theresa "I oppose Brexit but my one contribution was to propose ending the right to fair trials and human rights so loved of those nasty Europeans" May. Who is such a good committed person she kept her face hidden throughout the referendum. Another chancer, who fancies the big time even if the country has to get damaged for it.
She is massively deluded, no one outside the Tory MPs likes her either but in the shit storm that has kicked off, she looks like safety. In the contest of who can sound most like the corporal on immigration, I say less than 100 thousand, you say lower, I say 50 thousand, you say lower, I say nothing and you say deal., she will win having a career of immigrant bashing behind her. (The corporal will go for -1M wait and see). Well, I wonder what your father would say now, playing this game with this shower? Proud of your principle and compassion, I doubt it. No doubt proud you have reached this level, but what gains a woman to inherit the earth but lose their soul.
To avoid doubt, if I had a vote, it would be for tried and tested Theresa, on the same basis that I would rather loose my left hand than my right (lessers of two weevils as they used to say in the Navy).
*This refers to his brave new dawn of ending the subsidy known as Barnett for Scotland. This would be bad for poor people and just about everyone else in Scotland, spell the end of the Union and speaks to a mind which revels in creative destruction. Don't worry, the SNP rage machine is in overdrive daring you, double daring you. I know you will because you think doing it will make us better, instead of ill, unhappy and rebellious.
Thursday, 30 June 2016
May be is eye, maybes no
Can I claim credit for the prediction? Looks like the monster is just about to eat "the Gover".
If there is history after this, it will note that Brexit disaster immolated its two top Tory proponents.
I'd love to be invited to dinner, chez gove, c'est soir. How are our cut-price 'Underwoods' coping?
What Gove may never have twigged is probably no one really likes him in the Tory party, he is polite and minds his ps and qs, but to them he is jumped up smart arse. Being clever in the stupid party is not a route to success.
So where are we, it is like the moment from "In the thick of it" when Jamie tilts his head and says "Claire Ballantine".
Is this where we have reached, Theresa May looks the acceptable choice?
She is what she says, a hard right wing politician with no vision and no imagination. She is going to hard Brexit. The hard Brexit will destroy her reputation because no freedom of movement means economic disaster.
Another notch on the ratchet to chaos, the corporal moves closer.
Can I claim credit for the prediction? Looks like the monster is just about to eat "the Gover".
If there is history after this, it will note that Brexit disaster immolated its two top Tory proponents.
I'd love to be invited to dinner, chez gove, c'est soir. How are our cut-price 'Underwoods' coping?
What Gove may never have twigged is probably no one really likes him in the Tory party, he is polite and minds his ps and qs, but to them he is jumped up smart arse. Being clever in the stupid party is not a route to success.
So where are we, it is like the moment from "In the thick of it" when Jamie tilts his head and says "Claire Ballantine".
Is this where we have reached, Theresa May looks the acceptable choice?
She is what she says, a hard right wing politician with no vision and no imagination. She is going to hard Brexit. The hard Brexit will destroy her reputation because no freedom of movement means economic disaster.
Another notch on the ratchet to chaos, the corporal moves closer.
In which I eat humble pie
Michael, I did you wrong. You are a wide-eyed fanatic as well as your wife's email shows cynical.
No shame then, hard Brexit and collapse the economy. You and the Peoples Front of Judea are a marriage made in heaven.
We will be unloved unwanted back of the stairs sprogs, soon to the enemy of the people. The shame of Europe.
Boris what can I say, your fall has the brightest spot of light in the whole sorry shambles. Of all the leavers your unparalleled cynicism and ambition coupled to sheer lethargy might just have saved the country from the worst of Brexit. But, since I believe we are well past saving, watching you fall was worth a cheer, thanks.
For those who love their contradictions heightened, let me introduce our card carrying fanatics running for next PM. Theresa, slash immigration, English is bad as a second language (sheez what about multilingual being good Theresa), May. Michael, assuming a cow is a perfect sphere the pope is a closet protestant and evolution is a myth, Gove.
So here we go, who can outbid the corporal on immigrant bating?
Its the end of days, it really is. ( I think perhaps I should join Momentum?)
Michael, I did you wrong. You are a wide-eyed fanatic as well as your wife's email shows cynical.
No shame then, hard Brexit and collapse the economy. You and the Peoples Front of Judea are a marriage made in heaven.
We will be unloved unwanted back of the stairs sprogs, soon to the enemy of the people. The shame of Europe.
Boris what can I say, your fall has the brightest spot of light in the whole sorry shambles. Of all the leavers your unparalleled cynicism and ambition coupled to sheer lethargy might just have saved the country from the worst of Brexit. But, since I believe we are well past saving, watching you fall was worth a cheer, thanks.
For those who love their contradictions heightened, let me introduce our card carrying fanatics running for next PM. Theresa, slash immigration, English is bad as a second language (sheez what about multilingual being good Theresa), May. Michael, assuming a cow is a perfect sphere the pope is a closet protestant and evolution is a myth, Gove.
So here we go, who can outbid the corporal on immigrant bating?
Its the end of days, it really is. ( I think perhaps I should join Momentum?)
Wednesday, 29 June 2016
Devine Vine
You know I could sort of take in a cynical nihilist we are so screwed whatever sort of way Boris Johnson. I mean everyone knows what he is, ambitious, officer class, articulate, lazy and extremely right wing. He does not hide it that well nor pretend to have any great vision, a few latin phrases and some buffoonery, topped off with slice of casual racism and dash of snobbery.
But Gove, wasn't he the principled deep thinker, the intellect that could not be stilled. A man driven by a deep sense of duty to get us back our mojo. For this higher purpose, he held his nose, rolled up his sleeves and set to work with the corporal up to their ears in the stuff that stinks.
It is a tough job, you know wrecking the country, splitting it top to bottom so badly that it will never recover. Fair enough the Judea people's front are busy doing the same thing, I can sort of dig their belief in something. So I was prepared to cut Gove the slack of being a wide-eyed fanatic, a dangerous lunatic who should have been weeded out of politics. Yet, I need not to have puzzled how he got this far nor worried about his sanity.
As the devine Ms Vine proves, he is all that one could hope for weak, cynical and ambitious, in every way, a small person. It is so awful, I agreed with Zoe Williams (there is a first time for everything), it makes life easier to believe it was a forgery. Its like Ben Swain, chancellor that is it, chancellor!
Michael, you'll never read this nor will anyone else, but if in you there is a just a trace of a soul left from your Scottish calvinist upbringing we shared, then look at our country and what you have done and tell me that a small part of your soul does feel 'black burning shame'. Please I could not bear to believe you have no regrets. For whatever reason you went into politics, I hope it was not this, since if it was all is lost.
You know I could sort of take in a cynical nihilist we are so screwed whatever sort of way Boris Johnson. I mean everyone knows what he is, ambitious, officer class, articulate, lazy and extremely right wing. He does not hide it that well nor pretend to have any great vision, a few latin phrases and some buffoonery, topped off with slice of casual racism and dash of snobbery.
But Gove, wasn't he the principled deep thinker, the intellect that could not be stilled. A man driven by a deep sense of duty to get us back our mojo. For this higher purpose, he held his nose, rolled up his sleeves and set to work with the corporal up to their ears in the stuff that stinks.
It is a tough job, you know wrecking the country, splitting it top to bottom so badly that it will never recover. Fair enough the Judea people's front are busy doing the same thing, I can sort of dig their belief in something. So I was prepared to cut Gove the slack of being a wide-eyed fanatic, a dangerous lunatic who should have been weeded out of politics. Yet, I need not to have puzzled how he got this far nor worried about his sanity.
As the devine Ms Vine proves, he is all that one could hope for weak, cynical and ambitious, in every way, a small person. It is so awful, I agreed with Zoe Williams (there is a first time for everything), it makes life easier to believe it was a forgery. Its like Ben Swain, chancellor that is it, chancellor!
Michael, you'll never read this nor will anyone else, but if in you there is a just a trace of a soul left from your Scottish calvinist upbringing we shared, then look at our country and what you have done and tell me that a small part of your soul does feel 'black burning shame'. Please I could not bear to believe you have no regrets. For whatever reason you went into politics, I hope it was not this, since if it was all is lost.
I'll have my Calvinistic pessimism neat, please
So what has today brought us? The destruction of the Labour party as we know it. Whatever happens now it's done for 5 years; the peoples' front of Judea. Pity they did not do this after Gordon Brown, then we might just have had some sort of useful opposition by now.
To those with ears, sounded like Scotland is indeed out of the EU, I had hopes (well not hope really, just ill founded cynical guesswork) the French would offer a deal if nothing else to stick it to John Bull but NON. The Spanish, we all knew. So this is now a MAJOR disaster for Scotland. If I might riff on the 78 theme, I remember the victory parade before we went to Argentina, turned out premature that's what hope does to you; it's the dream of a foolish man (to quote Bill Donald). So now we are Indied up with nowhere to go.
Don't get me wrong I was for the Union (both), but if Scotland was going to jump then I could console myself we were jumping into the EU. This now seems unlikely, we would jump into the void and hope in five years to get back in.
Ah, you say a typical unionist doing us down. Not at all, if the Yes went over all hard slog on us but no disconnection from the EU, I might have voted Yes (probably not, but I might!).
So having written the check, "I call on my ministers to get indy2 ready", the First Minister will have to decide to cash it or not. To be fair to her, she (and Keizia Dugdal, Willie Rennie, Tim Farron and even Ruth Davidson) are about the only political leaders who I don't wish to shout incessantly at.
Cometh the hour, cometh the woman. She has been a beacon of common sense and grit. I imagine she knows that voting for the void might win Indy2 because let's face it, after the EU referendum voting for a plague of frogs if it meant we could get away from the parlour games, outright racism, chaos and shambles doon sooth would get 50 % of the vote.
However, despite my rejection of all things SNP, there is something in her I admire that I did not in Alex Salmond. Watching and listening to her, she has risen to this occasion.
How about Corbyn, Cameron, Johnson, the corporal, Labour party, Tory party etc lived up or down to this crisis?
She seems to care that she is the FM of all Scots, hence I guess she knows the void option would in fact bring not just the plague of frogs but much worse. We would be out alongside our biggest and recently divorced trading partner (still adjusting unhappily to their unbearably stupid self-harm). The economic consequences would be dire, the potential for vindictive point scoring bust up with John Bull high and if I look in her face, I sense she knows and unlike Salmond, I think she cares.
Still as the scorpion said to the frog, its my nature. As a politician, she is now in a real bind, having set phasers to independence she either fires or get fired. My guess is she fires, expect to see her do the Boris Johnson, "shit I own this" face in the next 18 months. After which we get our very own celtic flavoured shit storm.
So what has today brought us? The destruction of the Labour party as we know it. Whatever happens now it's done for 5 years; the peoples' front of Judea. Pity they did not do this after Gordon Brown, then we might just have had some sort of useful opposition by now.
To those with ears, sounded like Scotland is indeed out of the EU, I had hopes (well not hope really, just ill founded cynical guesswork) the French would offer a deal if nothing else to stick it to John Bull but NON. The Spanish, we all knew. So this is now a MAJOR disaster for Scotland. If I might riff on the 78 theme, I remember the victory parade before we went to Argentina, turned out premature that's what hope does to you; it's the dream of a foolish man (to quote Bill Donald). So now we are Indied up with nowhere to go.
Don't get me wrong I was for the Union (both), but if Scotland was going to jump then I could console myself we were jumping into the EU. This now seems unlikely, we would jump into the void and hope in five years to get back in.
Ah, you say a typical unionist doing us down. Not at all, if the Yes went over all hard slog on us but no disconnection from the EU, I might have voted Yes (probably not, but I might!).
So having written the check, "I call on my ministers to get indy2 ready", the First Minister will have to decide to cash it or not. To be fair to her, she (and Keizia Dugdal, Willie Rennie, Tim Farron and even Ruth Davidson) are about the only political leaders who I don't wish to shout incessantly at.
Cometh the hour, cometh the woman. She has been a beacon of common sense and grit. I imagine she knows that voting for the void might win Indy2 because let's face it, after the EU referendum voting for a plague of frogs if it meant we could get away from the parlour games, outright racism, chaos and shambles doon sooth would get 50 % of the vote.
However, despite my rejection of all things SNP, there is something in her I admire that I did not in Alex Salmond. Watching and listening to her, she has risen to this occasion.
How about Corbyn, Cameron, Johnson, the corporal, Labour party, Tory party etc lived up or down to this crisis?
She seems to care that she is the FM of all Scots, hence I guess she knows the void option would in fact bring not just the plague of frogs but much worse. We would be out alongside our biggest and recently divorced trading partner (still adjusting unhappily to their unbearably stupid self-harm). The economic consequences would be dire, the potential for vindictive point scoring bust up with John Bull high and if I look in her face, I sense she knows and unlike Salmond, I think she cares.
Still as the scorpion said to the frog, its my nature. As a politician, she is now in a real bind, having set phasers to independence she either fires or get fired. My guess is she fires, expect to see her do the Boris Johnson, "shit I own this" face in the next 18 months. After which we get our very own celtic flavoured shit storm.
Tuesday, 28 June 2016
The end of Britain as a normal country
Say what you like about the British, we do it in style. Republics and democracies fail from within. Ours has failed.
The elite (as used to be known) of civil society, business, parliament, professions, trade unions and universities all argued by large majorities for the UK to remain in the EU. Yet a small band of this elite had the genius idea of gaining power by using the popular will expressed through a referendum. The public obliged and the whole edifice has come down because no one believed it could happen. It is quite a coup. This is the lasting effect of Brexit, its not a new idea its how all big changes occur (in these pre end fof EU days, can I use the French phrase 'trahison des clercs' its not quite right but has a ring) .
The Labour party is going to tear itself to shreds. The hard left are not going to give up, this is their chance for a revolution. Jeremy Corbyn and his praetorian guard have their eyes on the far future, they are not the elite. Even if they are defeated then the Labour party will be split beyond recognition, if he wins, 170 MPs (to some extent the defeated elite) will be deselected forcing them to oblivion and succeeded by true believers. How did Corbyn and his fellows get to this position, because the elite fearing for their jobs went along, thinking he could be managed, grateful for the extra members he apparently brings. Unlike them, he means it when he wants big change.
The Tory party is also hopelessly split. No serious person believes they can deliver what the Brexiters promised (sorry outlined potential for). The only question is how many of the defeated elite go along with the Farage style populism in an effort to stay afloat.
The clear winner and genius of all this is Nigel Farage. He prepared the pitch, encouraging fear in the Tory right for their elite positions, it is they who embraced his cause. In Boris Johnson he found the ambitious dupe, the front man he cannot be, who would serve to batter down the last defences of the elite. It is a moot point whether Johnson wished to win, abstractly yes, in he likes to win games but to face this mess, I doubt it. Boris, I have read his books, is neither very smart nor very hard working, merely temporarily popular. The corporal is always the one to watch.
As we reflect upon the rubble of the UK with outright racism in public, an MP murdered in the street, Momentum protesters with exterminate vermin T-shirts and a shattered elite squabbling who can be Caesar whilst the republic falls, we can ask what next?
If you feel angry about Boris or Gove etc, don't worry too much. When republics fall, these transitionary people usually get their rewards as the popular will does not really like them either. Their mistake is to think they can control it, no one ever does. These people are the elite, the only people who really liked them are their fellow elites whose morale they shattered. You might ride the tiger for a while but in the end it eats you.
My guess both the hard left and hard right (who have so much in common) will fight this out in the streets for control. Democracy requires compromise but neither believes in sharing power, so in the end its violence. The collateral damage is society and the result a failed state, of rule of the strong (think Somalia under Adid). When and what sequence to watch for? Timing is uncertain but steps along the way mishandled Brexit is for sure, either economic calamity or betrayal of anti-immigrant popular will. Either outcome strengthens extremes. An outsider comes to the mainstream party who breaks taboos about the role of parliament and dissent. They will use the people's will as a weapon either through referenda or protest. Near the end, what remains of the civil society elite embrace their strong man or woman to bring order to chaos.
Who is to blame? Well in my view, everyone and no one. It is human nature. If London is so tolerant why did not we not try harder to make the rest of the country like London sooner? If we fear the popular will in an unequal society(as elites really should) why did we pander and celebrate those who were harnessing it. Why not do something for the people before it reached this stage? Because those in the elite like being the elite. Well, it was nice while it lasted.
In case this sounds like praise for the elite, it failed because it was rotten to the core. Insufficient attention to the effects of globalisation, seeking to blame the other, running frantic do or die campaigns with demonisation of opponents as a show not belief and making serious mistakes. Where to start on their blunders, a short list that could fill a blog MP's expenses, Iraq war, housing crash, housing shortage, paedophile rings, way over done austerity, politics as a game for insiders, no apologies.
Say what you like about the British, we do it in style. Republics and democracies fail from within. Ours has failed.
The elite (as used to be known) of civil society, business, parliament, professions, trade unions and universities all argued by large majorities for the UK to remain in the EU. Yet a small band of this elite had the genius idea of gaining power by using the popular will expressed through a referendum. The public obliged and the whole edifice has come down because no one believed it could happen. It is quite a coup. This is the lasting effect of Brexit, its not a new idea its how all big changes occur (in these pre end fof EU days, can I use the French phrase 'trahison des clercs' its not quite right but has a ring) .
The Labour party is going to tear itself to shreds. The hard left are not going to give up, this is their chance for a revolution. Jeremy Corbyn and his praetorian guard have their eyes on the far future, they are not the elite. Even if they are defeated then the Labour party will be split beyond recognition, if he wins, 170 MPs (to some extent the defeated elite) will be deselected forcing them to oblivion and succeeded by true believers. How did Corbyn and his fellows get to this position, because the elite fearing for their jobs went along, thinking he could be managed, grateful for the extra members he apparently brings. Unlike them, he means it when he wants big change.
The Tory party is also hopelessly split. No serious person believes they can deliver what the Brexiters promised (sorry outlined potential for). The only question is how many of the defeated elite go along with the Farage style populism in an effort to stay afloat.
The clear winner and genius of all this is Nigel Farage. He prepared the pitch, encouraging fear in the Tory right for their elite positions, it is they who embraced his cause. In Boris Johnson he found the ambitious dupe, the front man he cannot be, who would serve to batter down the last defences of the elite. It is a moot point whether Johnson wished to win, abstractly yes, in he likes to win games but to face this mess, I doubt it. Boris, I have read his books, is neither very smart nor very hard working, merely temporarily popular. The corporal is always the one to watch.
As we reflect upon the rubble of the UK with outright racism in public, an MP murdered in the street, Momentum protesters with exterminate vermin T-shirts and a shattered elite squabbling who can be Caesar whilst the republic falls, we can ask what next?
If you feel angry about Boris or Gove etc, don't worry too much. When republics fall, these transitionary people usually get their rewards as the popular will does not really like them either. Their mistake is to think they can control it, no one ever does. These people are the elite, the only people who really liked them are their fellow elites whose morale they shattered. You might ride the tiger for a while but in the end it eats you.
My guess both the hard left and hard right (who have so much in common) will fight this out in the streets for control. Democracy requires compromise but neither believes in sharing power, so in the end its violence. The collateral damage is society and the result a failed state, of rule of the strong (think Somalia under Adid). When and what sequence to watch for? Timing is uncertain but steps along the way mishandled Brexit is for sure, either economic calamity or betrayal of anti-immigrant popular will. Either outcome strengthens extremes. An outsider comes to the mainstream party who breaks taboos about the role of parliament and dissent. They will use the people's will as a weapon either through referenda or protest. Near the end, what remains of the civil society elite embrace their strong man or woman to bring order to chaos.
Who is to blame? Well in my view, everyone and no one. It is human nature. If London is so tolerant why did not we not try harder to make the rest of the country like London sooner? If we fear the popular will in an unequal society(as elites really should) why did we pander and celebrate those who were harnessing it. Why not do something for the people before it reached this stage? Because those in the elite like being the elite. Well, it was nice while it lasted.
In case this sounds like praise for the elite, it failed because it was rotten to the core. Insufficient attention to the effects of globalisation, seeking to blame the other, running frantic do or die campaigns with demonisation of opponents as a show not belief and making serious mistakes. Where to start on their blunders, a short list that could fill a blog MP's expenses, Iraq war, housing crash, housing shortage, paedophile rings, way over done austerity, politics as a game for insiders, no apologies.
The failure of politics
What is democracy? Is simply the majority voting for something? Can we, for example, have a law that requires the rapid deportation of all non-UK citizens because the majority voted for it in a referendum? Before you rush to say people won't vote for that, I remind you that we have lived through "people won't vote for that".
Should they be asked the question? If not why not? It is a simple enough question to put the voters and they understand the consequences.
Who decides what are things we cannot ask or what are universal rights? How are we to define the will of the people?
We know TV shows get great voter engagement, should we run democracy like that. After the news, we all get to vote on questions to be asked with answers and then we get to choose?
-It has the advantage of getting people involved and registering an opinion. The obvious flaw is that minds change, the need for reflection and debate. It cedes power to those who frame the choices. Engagement is wide but shallow.
Participative democracy at local levels, committees with procedures and rules, frequent meetings, long debates and decisions.
-In some ways the model, all views are heard and individuals can have great engagement. The danger is this is the world run by the self-selecting few who have the time / inclination / enthusiasm to turn up. Engagement is deep but narrow. Student Unions, for example, are notable for the proliferation of elected posts and lack of anyone else at their meetings.
Representative democracy, put a cross on the ballot paper, leave the winner of your voting group who spent time persuading you with a plan to sort out the decisions with other winners from other voting groups with a different plan.
- This is the current model in the Scotland and the UK. It tensions engagement against individual participation.
The process should not matter in an ideal world. Democracy requires compromises, politics is about arriving at compromises without violence. We are at a point now where we don't do compromise. Maybe we always we were, we just did not allow participation to the extent that this was visible. So I wonder how do we settle claims between groups? I suspect we are about to use violence.
What is democracy? Is simply the majority voting for something? Can we, for example, have a law that requires the rapid deportation of all non-UK citizens because the majority voted for it in a referendum? Before you rush to say people won't vote for that, I remind you that we have lived through "people won't vote for that".
Should they be asked the question? If not why not? It is a simple enough question to put the voters and they understand the consequences.
Who decides what are things we cannot ask or what are universal rights? How are we to define the will of the people?
We know TV shows get great voter engagement, should we run democracy like that. After the news, we all get to vote on questions to be asked with answers and then we get to choose?
-It has the advantage of getting people involved and registering an opinion. The obvious flaw is that minds change, the need for reflection and debate. It cedes power to those who frame the choices. Engagement is wide but shallow.
Participative democracy at local levels, committees with procedures and rules, frequent meetings, long debates and decisions.
-In some ways the model, all views are heard and individuals can have great engagement. The danger is this is the world run by the self-selecting few who have the time / inclination / enthusiasm to turn up. Engagement is deep but narrow. Student Unions, for example, are notable for the proliferation of elected posts and lack of anyone else at their meetings.
Representative democracy, put a cross on the ballot paper, leave the winner of your voting group who spent time persuading you with a plan to sort out the decisions with other winners from other voting groups with a different plan.
- This is the current model in the Scotland and the UK. It tensions engagement against individual participation.
The process should not matter in an ideal world. Democracy requires compromises, politics is about arriving at compromises without violence. We are at a point now where we don't do compromise. Maybe we always we were, we just did not allow participation to the extent that this was visible. So I wonder how do we settle claims between groups? I suspect we are about to use violence.
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